Decisions, hats, haircuts, and tattoos

Years ago, when I told a colleague I would be a father, he replied, “Having a kid is like getting a face tattoo; you have to commit.”

It was a nice reminder to read James Clear’s piece last week on decision-making. In the post, he said:

“I think about decisions in three ways: hats, haircuts, and tattoos.

Most decisions are like hats. Try one, and if you don’t like it, put it back and try another. The cost of a mistake is low, so move quickly and try a bunch of hats.

Some decisions are like haircuts. You can fix a bad one, but it won’t be quick and you might feel foolish for awhile. That said, don’t be scared of a bad haircut. Trying something new is usually a risk worth taking. If it doesn’t work out, by this time next year you will have moved on and so will everyone else.

A few decisions are like tattoos. Once you make them, you have to live with them. Some mistakes are irreversible. Maybe you’ll move on for a moment, but then you’ll glance in the mirror and be reminded of that choice all over again. Even years later, the decision leaves a mark. When you’re dealing with an irreversible choice, move slowly and think carefully.”

How might we apply hats, haircuts, and tattoos to risk decisions? The challenge is discerning the consequences, second-order consequences, and gaps in your understanding or knowledge of the issue. For instance, I worked with a manufacturer who fired a fraudulent supplier in Malaysia. That (organised-crime-connected) supplier later sent thugs with machetes into the workplace to intimidate the new supplier.

How shocking! Not really. All the local staff knew who controlled this logistics provider (they were a daily on-site presence). They’d used similar tactics on smaller ‘clients.’ The second-order consequence (that no other supplier tendered for the contract once announced) would also have been predictable (maybe a 30% possibility if you’d asked people beforehand).

Hats, haircuts, and tattoos are helpful frames for decision-making. But they assume insight and understanding. The good news is that those insights generally exist within organisations. You need to talk. Or, more accurately, have a culture where discussing decisions is encouraged and not seen as an annoyance or hindrance to “moving fast and breaking things.”

How do you know if you have that culture? Include these two statements (with scaled options) on your next engagement survey, “I have identified someone I can talk to about ethical concerns” and “I am involved in decision-making.”